BMW Championship betting preview: Xander Schauffele decide to win

The BMW Championship returns to the Rocky Mountains for the primary time since 2014, when Billy Horschel fended off Bubba Watson at Cherry Hills.

However this yr, the PGA Tour will head half-hour south from Cherry Hills to Fortress Pines Golf Membership, the course that used to host The Worldwide from 1986 by means of 2006. No participant on this yr’s area has competed at Fortress Pines professionally, though Denver-native Wyndham Clark has fond recollections of attending The Worldwide as a child.

But, the course has modified since then, with Jack Nicklaus beefing issues up by including 600 yards off the tee. This week’s complete yardage will learn 8,130 yards, a gaudy determine that can make a golf purist’s jaw drop. However this course sits 6,500 toes above sea degree, which means the golf ball will journey a better distance, just like how area targets go the furthest at Denver Broncos video games and the way Coors Area—residence of the Rockies—isn’t too sort to pitchers. The course is not going to play that lengthy, despite the fact that the par-5 1st—with the mountains within the backdrop—appears to be like prefer it goes on without end.

Nicklaus additionally redesigned 10 holes, renovated 77 bunkers, and reconstructed 10 water options over the previous decade, per The Denver Put up. The ‘Golden Bear’ laid out the unique design in 1981, with the session of Colorado billionaire Jack Vickers.

The course, which prides itself on being “The Greatest Day of Golf in America,” used to supply loads of drama at The Worldwide yearly. Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, and Retief Goosen all received right here, however so did Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, and David Toms—a who’s who of main champions.

Now, all these years later, Fortress Pines will host a FedEx Cup Playoff occasion, which is able to certainly entertain and take a look at one of the best gamers on this planet.

BMW Championship Odds:

Listed here are the newest odds for gamers to win the BMW Championship, courtesy of DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +330

Xander Schauffele +550

Rory McIlroy +1200

Collin Morikawa +1400

Viktor Hovland +1800

Hideki Matsuyama +1800

Patrick Cantlay +2000

Ludvig Åberg +2000

Tommy Fleetwood +2000

Wyndham Clark +3000

Tony Finau +3000

Sam Burns +3000

Russell Henley +3000

Corey Conners +3500

Billy Horschel +3500

Aaron Rai +4000

Justin Thomas +4000

Cameron Younger +4500

Adam Scott +4500

Sungjae Im +4500

Sahith Theegala +4500

Akshay Bhatia +5000

Robert MacIntyre +5000

Jason Day +5000

Shane Lowry +5500

Davis Thompson +5500

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000

Matt Fitzpatrick +6000

Byeong Hun An +6500

Brian Harman +6500

Will Zalatoris +6500

Nick Dunlap +6500

Taylor Pendrith +7000

Alex Noren +7500

Denny McCarthy +7500

Picture by Mike Mulholland/Getty Pictures

Prime 10 picks embody hometown hero:

Wyndham Clark — Prime 10 +200

Wyndham Clark has some extra stress on him this week, contemplating he has by no means performed professionally in his residence state of Colorado. However the Denver native will overpower that emotion and submit one other strong end at Fortress Pines. Clark has completed among the many prime 14 in 4 of his final 5 begins, with the outlier being his missed minimize at Royal Troon. He stated that course didn’t match his eye, nor did he play effectively at this yr’s Open. However he bounced again after a brutal opening spherical in Paris, tying Scottie Scheffler for having one of the best rating over the ultimate 54 holes on the Olympics. Clark most just lately tied for seventh in Memphis and is likely one of the longer hitters on tour, a necessity on this 8,130-yard behemoth that sits greater than 6,000 toes above sea degree. He can be part of the story of this week.

Byeong Hun An — Prime 10 +360

The Seoul, South Korea native will submit his sixth top-10 end of the season at Fortress Pines, a course that requires each size and accuracy with the driving force. An can hit the ball a rustic mile, rating 4th on tour in total driving distance, however he tends to get a little bit wayward off the tee. Final week in Memphis, he discovered the golf green solely 41% of the time however didn’t submit an over-par rating on the FedEx St. Jude. He did tie for thirty third, however we like him to straighten issues out this week and vie for a top-10 end.

Tony Finau — Prime 10 +200

Because the PGA Championship, Tony Finau has solely missed one minimize, which got here at Royal Troon. He additionally has seven top-20 finishes in that span, together with a T-3 on the U.S. Open and a top-five end on the Vacationers Championship in Connecticut. A poor week off the tee stored him at bay final week in Memphis, the place he discovered solely 25-of-56 (44.6%) fairways, however Finau nonetheless posted 4 sub-70 rounds to tie for sixteenth. Fortress Pines has extra beneficiant fairways than those at TPC Southwind, the place hassle lurks round each nook. So Finau ought to, in idea, have a stronger week in Colorado. He additionally ranks second to Scottie Scheffler in strokes gained approaching the inexperienced and seventh in total strokes gained. When he places himself in place, he takes benefit, and we envision that occuring this week.

Picture by Andy Lyons/Getty Pictures

Two prime 5 finishers:

Hideki Matsuyama — Prime 5 at +280

Hideki Matsuyama had an absolute whirlwind of every week. It included a theft, a brand new caddie, a mid-round dialog with a PGA Tour guidelines official, and, in the end, an exhilarating victory. The 2021 Masters Champion held the most important 54-hole lead of the season in Memphis however then noticed it evaporate on the again 9. He then completed birdie-birdie to win by two, additional proof that Matsuyama is likely one of the finest champions of this era. However Matsuyama received final week due to his putter, part of his recreation he has traditionally struggled with. He ranks 106th on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained placing. But, final week, he gained greater than eight strokes on the inexperienced, sitting atop the sector in that class. He just lately made a placing change, and that call clearly paid off. We imagine that swap will proceed to pay dividends this week in Colorado, the place Matsuyama will threaten the winner’s circle once more.

Adam Scott: Prime 5 at +650

He could have simply turned 44, however Adam Scott can nonetheless hit the ball a good distance. Scott ranks thirty second on the PGA Tour in driving distance and thirty second in strokes gained off the tee. With that stated, the Aussie has struggled with accuracy at occasions this yr. Nevertheless, final week at TPC Southwind—a course the place discovering fairways is difficult—he discovered the quick grass 53.4% of the time, which ranked above common among the many 70-player area. He wound up tying for 18th, his third straight top-20 end. He completed runner-up to Robert MacIntyre on the Scottish Open after which tied for tenth at Royal Troon. Scott has additionally not missed the minimize because the PGA Championship. The 2013 Masters Champion is taking part in effectively, however he has not performed effectively sufficient all through this complete season to ensure a spot in Atlanta. Presently ranked forty first within the FedEx Cup standings, Scott will really feel motivated to submit a top-five end in Colorado to e book a ticket to East Lake. We imagine he does simply that, ending among the many prime 5 for the second time in his final 4 begins.

Picture by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire through Getty Pictures

Winners:

Xander Schauffele — Win at +550

Scahuffele got here near stealing the FedEx St. Jude Championship away from Matsuyama, firing a closing 7-under 63 on Sunday to complete in a tie for second with Viktor Hovland. However this week, Schauffele will seize his third win of the season within the altitude. He has no flaws in his recreation and hits the ball as straight as an arrow. He’s additionally among the many finest putters on the PGA Tour, which at all times helps. On prime of that, Schauffele ranks first on the PGA Tour in scrambling share and first on tour in three-putt avoidance. He not often makes a mistake across the inexperienced, saving him loads of pictures and conserving him in rivalry. So not solely will his improved distance positive factors assist off the tee this week, however his quick recreation will are available in but useful once more.

Scottie Scheffler — Win at +330

Now that the fields are dwindling in dimension, Scheffler’s odds of successful have diminished as effectively. You get zero return on choosing the World No. 1 to complete among the many prime 5, not to mention the highest 10, so it’s possible you’ll as effectively decide him to win at +330. In any case, Scheffler has received seven occasions over the previous six months, together with an Olympic gold medal. Plus, he has completed exterior of the highest 10 solely as soon as throughout that span: a T-41 on the U.S. Open. You possibly can argue for Scheffler seemingly each week, as no one hits the ball higher from tee to inexperienced. But it surely all comes down as to whether or not he could make some putts and benefit from the quite a few birdie alternatives he presents himself. If he can, Scheffler will win with ease.

Tommy Fleetwood — Win at +2200

Fleetwood arrives in Colorado as far more of a longshot than the opposite two gamers listed above. However he little doubt has the expertise to earn his first profession PGA Tour title this week at Fortress Pines. The Englishman ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in complete driving, which mixes size and accuracy, and is eleventh in bogey avoidance, proving that he finds loads of fairways and doesn’t make many errors. But, final week in Memphis, Fleetwood ranked lifeless final within the area on the greens, shedding practically eight strokes together with his putter. He nonetheless managed to tie for twenty second and didn’t submit an over-par rating at TPC Southwind. However we expect his placing improves at Fortress Pines, translating into a powerful end. Maybe most significantly, Fleetwood is ranked thirty first within the FedEx Cup standings. He should play effectively to earn a spot within the Tour Championship in Atlanta, and that ought to inspire him to submit a powerful end result. That alone offers us motive to take a flier on Fleetwood to win.

Jack Milko is a golf employees author for SB Nation’s Enjoying By way of. Make sure to take a look at @_PlayingThrough for extra golf protection. You possibly can comply with him on Twitter @jack_milko as effectively.